Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?

This market asks whether TXN will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting before September 16, 2026.

As of today, the market implies a roughly 50% probability of this outcome.

With odds near 50/50, the market sees genuine uncertainty here. This represents an opportunity where new information could swing sentiment decisively in either direction.